A Safe Haven in Tight Markets: Why Turkish Investors Will Return to Housing

A difficult week for stocks and gold

This week neither the stock market nor gold rewarded investors. Markets have been tightening for weeks, and whichever door investors knock on, they are not finding the returns they expected.

In my view, reading this only through price moves misses the point. The real issue is confidence. When confidence is shaken, money first looks for a place to hide, then chooses where to work again. In Türkiye, that place has historically been housing.

A confidence problem: from fund liquidations to unpaid bonds

The confidence problem that began with fund liquidations is now felt in the stock and bond markets. Missed coupon and principal payments on private-sector bonds have moved to the centre of the agenda.

The numbers are clear. According to Central Registry Agency (MKK) announcements, payments were missed 57 times on debt instruments of 14 companies in 2026. In the first half of the year, 4 issuers had missed payments; between 1 and 23 October alone, 9 issuers did, including 5 new names.

This changes how investors look at risk. Money that was chasing yield now thinks first about protecting its capital.

The first effect: a cash squeeze and a buyer's market

The first effect on real estate will come from supply. Developers and owners who need cash will put homes on the market faster and at better prices. In the short term, I expect a buyer's market.

The data support this. In August 2026, 127,410 homes were sold, 14.7% fewer than a year earlier; sales fell 6.8% in January–August. The central bank's house price index rose 23% year on year in nominal terms but fell 6.4% in real terms. In other words, house prices have lagged inflation and have already become cheaper in real terms.

Over the same period, construction costs rose 28% year on year. That makes it hard for new projects to cut prices; discounts will appear mainly in existing stock and among sellers who need cash.

The Turkish investor's safe haven: housing

Turkish investors have always seen housing as a safe haven. Stocks and traditional gold have had their moments, but when uncertainty rises, savings have always returned to the title deed.

Today neither stocks nor gold have delivered the expected results, and defaults on the bond side have weakened confidence in fixed-income products. In this environment, I believe investors will return to housing very soon.

I expect this shift to be strongest among low- and middle-income households. For them, a home means both shelter and a way to protect savings. A period in which prices have fallen in real terms is a good basis for drawing this demand back into the market.

Uncertainty about the dollar will strengthen this trend. Turkish home buyers know that housing preserves purchasing power in dollar terms. Over the past 20 years it has fluctuated from period to period, but over the long run housing has not lost its value in dollar terms. When no one knows where the exchange rate is heading, that puts housing back at the front for families who want to protect their savings.

The central bank's move points the same way. On 22 October it cut the policy rate from 37% to 36%, its first cut in about nine months. The step is small, but the message is clear: interest income on deposits and cash will fall. Investors who see this will start thinking about moving their money into a real asset that holds its value over the long run.

When confidence is shaken, money first looks for a place to hide. In Türkiye, that place has historically been housing.

After New Year: a correction, excess supply and stronger demand

We expect a two-stage process after New Year:

1. Correction: homes put on the market because of the cash squeeze pull prices down, and the market stays a buyer's market for a while.
2. Stronger demand: more reasonable prices draw savings back from stocks and gold into housing, while excess supply keeps prices from shooting up.

This balance opens a good window for buyers: demand strengthens while prices stay under control. For investors who want the right property at the right price, the first half of 2027 could be an important period.

This demand will not be spread evenly. After fund liquidations and unpaid bonds, buyers will not want to carry developer risk. I expect demand to concentrate not on projects under construction but on completed homes and the resale market. Ready homes with a clean title deed will be the most sought-after product of this period.

Conclusion: a crisis is an opportunity for the right buyer

Tight markets will create a buyer's market in real estate in the short term. But when the Turkish investor's safe-haven reflex meets housing that has become cheaper in real terms, demand can recover quickly.

What will decide success in this period is buying the right property at the right price, without construction risk and through a reliable structure. Professionally managed real estate investment funds supervised by the Capital Markets Board are one way to capture this repricing without buying individual properties.

Sources: Endeks24 (MKK unpaid debt instruments, 24 Oct 2026) · Fintables (TÜİK and CBRT housing data, August 2026) · Habertürk (CBRT rate decision, 22 Oct 2026)

This is not investment advice. The information, comments and opinions in this article do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided only under an investment advisory agreement between the client and an authorised institution. The views expressed are the author's personal opinions and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Investment decisions should not be based solely on this information. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.