- House prices rose 23% in nominal terms but fell 6.4% in real terms over the year.
- Sales are falling, with second-hand sales down 19.4%; pricing power has moved to buyers.
- High rates are a tool, not a permanent state; easing becomes inevitable as disinflation progresses.
- The opportunity is selective: distressed sales, not the market as a whole.
- Institutional investors see these assets before they reach the listings.
The global and Turkish economies are going through a difficult period. Rising energy prices feed inflation, inflation erodes household purchasing power, and tight monetary policy keeps borrowing costs high. The effect on the property market is clear: demand is weakening, the number of listings is rising and properties are staying on the market longer.
Investors face two choices: keep their money in deposits and wait, or use this buyer's market to take positions. Looking at the data, I want to explain why the second option deserves serious attention.
What the numbers say
Annual consumer inflation in Türkiye was 29.73% in September 2026. Transport and housing-related items, including fuel and utilities, led the monthly increase; energy costs continue to weigh on inflation. The policy rate remains above inflation.
| Indicator | Latest | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Annual CPI inflation | 29.73% | Sep 2026 |
| Housing sales (y/y) | -14.7% | Aug 2026 |
| Second-hand housing sales (y/y) | -19.4% | Aug 2026 |
| House prices – nominal (y/y) | +23.0% | Aug 2026 |
| House prices – real (y/y) | -6.4% | Aug 2026 |
| New-tenant rents – real (y/y) | -3.9% | Aug 2026 |
| Construction cost index (y/y) | +28.3% | Jul 2026 |
Sources: TurkStat, Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (compiled by Kuveyt Türk and Fintables, October 2026).
In property, sales are contracting: housing sales fell 14.7% year on year in August 2026, and second-hand sales fell a much sharper 19.4%. More importantly, house prices rose 23% in nominal terms but fell 6.4% after inflation. In real terms, housing is cheaper than a year ago. Rents are also falling in real terms, while on the supply side construction costs are rising fast and construction output is shrinking.
What we see on the ground matches the data: sellers who need to sell quickly are cutting prices, the room for negotiation is widening, and price levels we have not seen for a long time are coming to market.
Why waiting in deposits is not enough
Deposit rates are currently above inflation, which makes waiting look attractive. But high rates are a tool, not a permanent state. Central banks fighting inflation keep rates high for a period, yet suppressing growth for too long carries its own cost. As disinflation progresses, monetary easing becomes inevitable.
When rate cuts begin, three things happen together: the real return on deposits falls, borrowing costs come down and pent-up demand returns. Real estate is one of the first sectors used to stimulate an economy; construction and housing have a strong multiplier effect on employment, industry and finance. That is why property tends to be among the fastest-responding asset classes in a recovery.
The real question is this: when rates fall and demand returns, will I already own assets, or will I be buying at prices that have started to rise?
Why crises create opportunities
Historically, global economic contractions have tended to move into recovery within one to two years. During that time the market shifts from sellers to buyers. This is exactly where we are today: real prices are falling, sellers need liquidity, and negotiating power is with the buyer.
An important distinction: Turkish house prices have not corrected as sharply as in Canada, the UK and some other developed markets. There is no market-wide collapse. The opportunity lies not in the general price level but in properties that must be sold quickly because the owner needs cash. The opportunity is real, but selective.
The real challenge for individual investors: finding the deal
Because the opportunity is selective, it is hard to find. For an individual investor, it means scanning hundreds of listings, negotiating each one separately and verifying the legal and technical condition of each property alone. That takes time and carries risk.
This is where the institutional investor has an edge. As a portfolio management company, we have been active in the market for many years. Properties that need to be sold urgently reach us through developers, contractors and real estate professionals before they are listed. With licensed valuation, legal due diligence and negotiating power, we can assess these opportunities one by one.
For us, the waiting period is over. We are active buyers today, ready to add well-priced assets to our portfolios.
Conclusion: be a disciplined buyer
Crises do not produce the same outcome for everyone. Those who panic sell, those who wait miss the moment, and those who are disciplined and prepared benefit most when the cycle turns. When monetary policy eases and demand recovers, quality assets bought at the right price have the potential to be among the strongest winners.
Real estate investment funds give investors access to such opportunities under professional management, licensed valuation and the supervision of the Capital Markets Board. How real estate investment funds in Türkiye work.
Serkan Topaktaş
Chairman of FT Portföy, a portfolio management company licensed by the Capital Markets Board of Türkiye (CMB/SPK), managing real estate and venture capital funds in Istanbul.
Related reading
Real estate investment funds in Türkiye →Investment funds in Türkiye →Tax optimisation through investment funds →The information, comments and opinions in this article do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided only under an investment advisory agreement between the client and an authorised institution. The views expressed are the author's personal opinions and may not suit your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. Investment decisions should not be based solely on this information. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.