In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Dubai’s real estate sector experienced a robust resurgence in the previous year. This revival was attributed to the emirate’s economic recovery, driven by elevated oil prices and strategic governmental measures, including alterations in visa regulations to enhance investment appeal. However, it’s essential to examine the sustainability of this growth, considering past patterns of artificially inflated price escalation and potential investor losses (Graph 1).
Graph 1: Dubai Average Property Prices (Per Square Foot)
The upward trajectory of prices in Dubai has led to a rise in rental costs. While this may stimulate property purchases, it could result in reduced rents following price declines, potentially leading to a dual financial setback.
Dubai vs. Istanbul: A Comparative Analysis (Table 1 and 2):
Let’s now compare the real estate trends in Dubai and Istanbul, focusing on real estate transactions, cumulative sales value, and average prices spanning from 2010 to 2023.
Table 1: Total Sales in Dubai (2010-2023)
| Year | Total Value (Billion Dollar) | Sales-Deals | Average Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 14,822 | 30,589 | 48,455 |
| 2015 | 17,847 | 23,796 | 75,125 |
| 2016 | 13,405 | 20,173 | 66,450 |
| 2017 | 17,356 | 24,900 | 69,702 |
| 2018 | 10,953 | 17,368 | 63,064 |
| 2019 | 10,163 | 17,046 | 59,621 |
| 2020 | 8,555 | 21,041 | 40,658 |
| 2021 | 16,621 | 16,870 | 98,524 |
| 2022 | 31,198 | 42,870 | 72,773 |
| 2023 | 48,855 | 60,997 | 80,094 |
Table 2: Total Sales in Istanbul (2010-2023)
| Year | Total Value (Billion Dollar) | Sales-Deals | Average Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 6,528 | 77,721 | 84,779 |
| 2015 | 32,895 | 237,767 | 138,349 |
| 2016 | 28,791 | 232,428 | 124,099 |
| 2017 | 27,036 | 238,383 | 113,596 |
| 2018 | 19,145 | 234,055 | 81,794 |
| 2019 | 15,448 | 237,675 | 65,181 |
| 2020 | 17,682 | 265,098 | 66,715 |
| 2021 | 26,075 | 276,223 | 94,456 |
| 2022 | 28,717 | 259,654 | 110,849 |
| 2023 | 30,000 | 265,000 | 113,207 |
Comparing these two cities, we observe a discernible pattern in Istanbul’s total sales, characterized by relatively moderate fluctuations in prices. In contrast, Dubai experienced an upward trajectory in average real estate prices, followed by a decrease. For instance, between 2010 and 2015, Dubai saw a 50% appreciation in real estate prices (Table 1 and 2).
Graph 2: Dubai Average Residential Prices (Per Square Foot)
It’s crucial to scrutinize the 2023 price hikes in Dubai to determine whether they are rooted in genuine market dynamics or driven by artificial factors (Graph 1 and Table 1).
Dubai and Istanbul: Diverse Economic Landscapes:
Dubai primarily thrives as an oil-centric metropolis, while Istanbul emerges as a multifaceted hub encompassing production, tourism, and exports. The disparities between these two cities are considerable and manifold. To gain further insights, let’s delve into the variations in real estate prices per square meter within the two urban landscapes (Graph 2 and 3).
